Independent guide · original demo · 18+

Ferry Locks: Probability and Payout Analysis

This guide details the actual mathematical odds and settlement rules for the Ferry Locks demo. It explains how survival probabilities combine with gross payouts to determine expected returns.

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Survival Probabilities and Gross Returns

Ferry Locks requires selecting one of four exit locks before play. Each lock has distinct survival chances at successive stages: 80%, 75%, two-thirds, and 50%. Reaching your chosen exit yields a gross return of 1.2×, 1.6×, 2.4×, or 4.8× your stake. Failure results in zero return, with no manual exit allowed during the round.

Expected Value and Simulation Evidence

The score function multiplies survival rates by gross returns, yielding values of 0.96 for all choices. This indicates a 96% expected return. Simulation data from one million rounds confirms this, with simulated RTPs ranging from 96.03% to 96.14%. These figures represent long-term averages, not guaranteed session outcomes.

Wallet Mechanics and Settlement Rules

Your stake is deducted immediately upon starting, persisting even if the round is unfinished. Gross returns include the original stake. Fractional hundredths are saved separately, while only whole coins are credited. Manual refill is available only when idle and balance drops below 10, setting the balance to 1000. Reloading discards unfinished rounds without refund.

Frequently asked questions

Does Ferry Locks require an account or cash deposit?

No account is needed for the local demo, and no cash deposits or withdrawals exist. The game uses virtual coins with no real-world cash value.

How are fractional returns handled in the demo?

Fractional hundredths are persisted separately from the main wallet. Only whole coins are credited, with the remainder retained for future calculations.